Ongoing study - The annual growth rate for the Belgian national healthcare budget was set at 1.5% in 2015. The actual expenditures for medicines have been augmenting at a higher pace and had a growth rate of 7.6% in 2020 causing a budget overrun of hundreds of millions. The main reason is an increasing number of expensive new medicines, particularly for the treatment of cancer. More accurate budget forecasting models for pharmaceuticals are needed. The NIHDI has addressed the KCE with the following request:
- to develop a guideline for the modelling of the pharmaceutical budget notably based on the information on the planned drug market entries;
- to formulate recommendations for an organizational structure, i.e. process, expertise, capacity, that will allow to systematically embed budget impact projection activities for drugs with potentially large impact on the healthcare system.
To this end, the existing models and their validity will be mapped by means of a literature review and consultations with (inter)national experts. Based on the findings, a draft guideline will be developed and tested in a proof-of-concept study.