Alternative scenarios for the forecasting of the midwifery workforce: horizon scanning and quantification model
KCE Reports 312 (2019)
In 2018, the Planning Unit for the Healthcare Professions (Cellule Planification de l’Offre des Professions des Soins de Santé / Cel Planning van het Aanbod van de Gezondheidszorgberoepen) published a future scenario on the evolution of midwifery staffing levels for the period 2014-2039. This scenario was developed based on the trends observed in the past. KCE was tasked with supplementing this base scenario by incorporating the new challenges that this profession is likely to face over this 25-year period.
To respond to this request, we developed a ground-breaking methodology, combining foresight analysis and scenario generation involving the actors on the ground. Three future scenarios were developed. The first envisages pregnancy and birth being managed mainly by gynaecologists, which more or less reflects the current situation. The second describes a care organisation centred around hospital-based midwives, and the third, a mainly outpatient care organisation, run by front-line actors (midwives and general practitioners). According to these three scenarios, the demand for midwives will increase by 11.4%, 12.0% and 17.4% respectively by 2026, and the midwives’ employment status – hospital employees, self-employed or mixed – will also change according to the care model that becomes dominant.
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